Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-14 0.318537 0.362167 0.409533 0.464771 0.527421 0.596275 0.677699
2025-09-21 0.249409 0.306098 0.372392 0.455632 0.557376 0.677731 0.831004
2025-09-28 0.198545 0.261104 0.339346 0.444367 0.581700 0.755291 0.991634
2025-10-05 0.169609 0.237720 0.328340 0.457692 0.637683 0.879502 1.229603
2025-10-12 0.142018 0.211218 0.308743 0.456154 0.673484 0.982495 1.456177
2025-10-19 0.121899 0.191619 0.295296 0.460602 0.717804 1.103331 1.726600
2025-10-26 0.107361 0.177737 0.287781 0.472219 0.774005 1.249214 2.056606
2025-11-02 0.089951 0.156361 0.265226 0.456471 0.784568 1.325710 2.289094
2025-11-09 0.074526 0.135654 0.240427 0.432829 0.777983 1.372665 2.479014
2025-11-16 0.064195 0.122042 0.225453 0.423472 0.793985 1.459183 2.749175
2025-11-23 0.055445 0.109851 0.211074 0.412755 0.805504 1.538684 3.017584
2025-11-30 0.050402 0.103850 0.207125 0.420798 0.852958 1.690096 3.442842
2025-12-07 0.043116 0.092478 0.191633 0.404855 0.853162 1.755072 3.716924
2025-12-14 0.037919 0.084555 0.181816 0.398927 0.872856 1.861834 4.093937
2025-12-21 0.033249 0.076984 0.171569 0.390477 0.885983 1.957204 4.462735
2025-12-28 0.030905 0.074182 0.171081 0.403234 0.947263 2.163797 5.107871
2026-01-04 0.027861 0.069254 0.165114 0.402619 0.978239 2.308300 5.635341
2026-01-11 0.025519 0.065616 0.161551 0.407078 1.021813 2.487938 6.274366
2026-01-18 0.023801 0.063234 0.160601 0.417739 1.082104 2.715809 7.067299
2026-01-25 0.020967 0.057518 0.150595 0.404067 1.079406 2.790501 7.487751
2026-02-01 0.018158 0.051390 0.138600 0.383307 1.055125 2.807596 7.761935
2026-02-08 0.016270 0.047461 0.131730 0.375142 1.063062 2.908826 8.277450
2026-02-15 0.014554 0.043727 0.124810 0.365729 1.066114 2.997604 8.773358